A Glimpse into the Future: How the Wine Market in China Will Evolve
Lenz Maria Moser analyzes opportunities, challenges – and what should give the industry hope.
The Chinese wine market has been in a state of transformation for years: While consumption stood at around 18 million hectoliters in 2013, according to the OIV, it recently dropped to barely more than six million. A dramatic decline by two-thirds – unimaginable by European standards. Yet for winemaker Lenz Maria Moser, who has served as Chief Winemaker for Chateau Changyu Moser XV for 20 years, one thing is clear: “The potential is still there – China is on the brink of a new upswing!”
From Consumption Decline to Renaissance
The reasons for the decline in recent years are diverse: The Baijiu industry, China’s traditional spirits sector, has massively expanded its market presence and invests far more than the wine industry in advertising and brand development. Moreover, Moser says the wine industry has “become alienated from the consumer” – a development seen not just in China but globally. “We in the industry have too often produced past the consumer’s needs,” says Moser. “That’s not unusual in a self-absorbed, agriculturally-rooted environment – but it’s dangerous.”
Compounding the problem were economic uncertainties, COVID, and changing consumer behavior: “Chinese people – especially the young, urban generation – are now more inclined toward spirits, long drinks, and ready-to-drink products. Wine must reclaim its place.”
Why Lenz Maria Moser Remains Optimistic
Despite everything, Moser sees a clear trajectory: “After a phase of consolidation comes the upswing – and then the hockey stick.” Provided the industry learns from the past: “Only those who listen to the consumer again and offer wines with lightness, origin, emotion, and a strong image will benefit.”
Trends and Opportunities in the Chinese Market
1. White Wine on the Rise
Semi-dry white wines, particularly German Riesling, are currently enjoying strong demand. Innovative products like the "White Cabernet Sauvignon" from Changyu Moser XV are also setting new standards. Moser: “The White Cabernet has the potential to become a new export hit – not just in Europe, but in China itself. When wine is celebrated abroad, recognition grows at home. A prophet is never honored in his own country – unless he succeeds abroad first.”
2. Lighter Wines Instead of Alcohol Bombs
The demand is shifting noticeably: Alcohol levels above 15% are losing relevance, while fresh, lively wines with a “drinkable style, strong image, and story behind them” are gaining traction.
3. Women as a Driving Force
Especially young female consumers are seeking wines with style but without snobbery. “It should look super-premium, but only cost premium,” Moser summarizes.
4. Organic and Sustainability
Chinese consumers are becoming more selective: Sustainability, naturalness, and credibility are becoming increasingly important. Cheap wine is rare in China – which makes quality and image even more crucial.
5. From Luxury to Everyday Companion
The goal should be to turn wine from a luxury item into an everyday beverage. Moser: “If only 10% of the 1.4 billion Chinese regularly drank wine, the sky would be the limit.”
What the Industry Must Do
Here too, the expert has clear ideas:
Rebuild brands that evoke emotion in consumers – like Mondavi or Gallo did in 1980s California – “that worked!”
Create products with taste, character, and distinctiveness.
Take innovation seriously and shape it, but not only in niche segments – the mass market matters. “The industry must partially reinvent itself.”
Treat de-alcoholized wines as a trend with caution: “Replacing alcohol with sugar, then selling it expensively – that’s ecological nonsense and often not a good product.”
And above all: “Education, education, education,” as Robert Mondavi successfully preached decades ago.
About Lenz Maria Moser
Lenz Maria Moser comes from one of Austria’s most traditional winemaking families. He has been active in China since 2005 and has served as Chief Winemaker for Chateau Changyu Moser XV since 2015 – a joint venture with Changyu, the world’s fourth-largest wine producer. Moser is considered one of the most profound experts on the Chinese wine market and an internationally sought-after thought leader in wine strategy, consumer engagement, and brand development.
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